How long is the Corona of a pandemic to take? When can we get out again? Is over after Easter, the worst of it? The multi-award-winning chemist and YouTuberin Mai Thi Nguyen-Kim has checked the scientific facts. Your easy-to-understand explanation leads to the sobering answers, but also to clear objectives and a way out.
In a new Video on your Youtube-science channel "maiLab" Mai Thi Nguyen-Kim explains the relevant scientific facts, analyses, modelling and in particular the question: when is over this pandemic finally? So much to the point: is It going to take.
Theoretically, the pandemic is over, when the so-called herd immunity is reached, i.e. 60 to 70 percent of the people infected and then recover. The scientist calculates With 76.000 confirmed cases in Germany (as of 1. April), and a dark figure of about a factor of 10, we have reached more than 760,000 cases only a herd immunity of a little more than one percent.
"The Corona-crisis is only just los", concludes the scientist.
It is sufficient, the curve is flat to keep?
There are two phases of the epidemic of poverty, the explained may: Containment and Mitigation. Under Containment understand epidemiologists containment of the disease to as early as possible in the Bud nipped be. The measures include: the Infected and contact persons isolate, many Tests; Authorities need to keep an Overview of all the cases and further spread prevented.
Currently, Germany is in the second Phase: Mitigation is damage control meant to be. If cases and contact chains of clear and targeted insulation are no longer possible to area-wide measures can be implemented. Currently, the are applicable in Germany-Contact orders, output restrictions, but also to Work in a home office or distance.
In the second Phase, the attempt of containment was abandoned first. The new goal is to slow the spread of the keyword "Flatten the curve" (in English: the curve is flat to hold). May explains: "The slower the epidemic passes, the less people are infected and the less people need at the same time a medical treatment." This is important not to overload our health care system. The Corona-cases beyond the health care system, would have dire consequences, Doctors would have to decide about life and death. dpa/Henning Kaiser image Mai Thi Nguyen-Kim (M) at the awards ceremony of the Grimme Online Awards a prize.
- Corona-the crisis in the News Ticker of FOCUS Online
"Flatten the Curve up to the herd immunity is not durchhaltbar"
May warns that many of the impression that with the Lockdown, the curve was flat enough that everything would be somewhat weathered lightly settled. "This notion is unfortunately far removed from reality to imagination." You, on the basis of some concrete Numbers.
Especially important is the reproduction number is. This States how many people are infects a of Infected, on average. For Coronavirus, Sars-Cov-2 the are currently two to three people, experts estimate. Without measures, the Corona is Patient, so two to three people.
Contact prohibition and output limitations of the current measures is to reduce the reproduction number. But how high must it be that our health system has sufficient capacity? May shows the basis of modelling of the German society for epidemiology, various conceivable scenarios for Germany. German society for epidemiology
Their conclusion is that The reproduction number would be reduced to a value between 1.1 and 1.25. What, therefore, only with extreme contact restrictions is possible.
And even then, would be the epidemic it is only in a year in the past. May even assume that the strict measures, up to two years to maintain must, to the collapse of our health care system to avoid.
"And this is not possible!", the scientist explains. Would follow immense damage to the economy, will be threatened, in turn, livelihoods and human life, as well as further consequences for the Psyche and society.
The scientist emphasizes: "If the order is not completely wrong, then Flatten the Curve up to the herd immunity is not sustainable."
As quickly as possible back to Phase 1
The Flattening of the curve would take too long. "We need to stop the curve, and the reproduction number below 1 bringen", so may. The number of Corona cases must be so small that the health authorities are in the position to monitor all cases and track them. Then targeted measures may apply only to the Infected and potential contact persons.
For the Rest, could stop a far-reaching normality. Germany would be back in Phase 1. But how would that be possible?
"The way back to Phase 1, only with strict measures for all of the machbar", so the scientist. Because in order for the invoice to go to, could infect an Infected person less than a Person (the reproduction number less than 1).
"This Lockdown was decided, is appropriate and richtig", the scientist emphasized. Still, we are far from a case number that is low enough to come back to Phase 1.
Reported corona virus cases in Germany (click on your state)
What would be a return to Phase 1?
However, when a return to Phase 1 would be possible? May expects to have 1000 cases, that would still be reasonably manageable. So many cases, it was the day that the Minister of health, Jens Spahn recommended that events with more than 1000 people to cancel. "At least then there was obviously a Problem with the tracking of the Fälle", so may.
If it would succeed at the present time, to reduce the strict measures the reproduction number to 0.5, it would take 56 days to the case limit of 1000 cases would be reached, calculates may. So almost two months. But a Reproduction ratio of 0.5 is extremely low, that would be "Wuhan-Style-Lockdown", the scientist emphasized.
But then the epidemic is not over still, so may. "We come only in a state in which the health system and economy can work."
"This epidemic is with a vaccine enden"
"In practice, we can vergessen" a natural herd immunity, quasi -;, so may. There is no scenario in which a herd immunity of 60 to 70 percent can be achieved could be created without causing unimaginable damage. "Either we would blow up the capacity of our health care system, in the process frightening many people would die or we would keep track of the herd immunity is below the capacity of our health care system, but that would take so long that it would be economically and socially bearable."
The scientist concludes: This epidemic is with a vaccine, which is expected at the earliest in the spring of 2021 ready. "So we can keep this for as long as possible without damage, now we need hard measures as quickly as possible back to the Containment mode, by then, in the case of relative normality, to endure können", so may.
Here you can see the complete Video.